Four Histories Of The Right’s 47 Percent Theory
2. The Battle: Right Wing Think Tanks and the New Culture War: Let’s jump forward, and see how the expensive, Washington D.C. think tanks react to President Obama. President Obama is a wonky technocrat, and much of his policy borrows from conservative policy of the 1990s (health care) or bipartisan policy of the 2000s (cap-and-trade) or policy that was new and open to debate (post-crisis financial regulations). The new president of the American Enterprise Institute, Arthur C. Brooks, writes a book calledThe Battle: How the Fight between Free Enterprise and Big Government Will Shape America’s Future. How does he think of the 47 percent? Focusing on “long-term strategies to keep the young in the 30 percent coalition,” he writes:
Federal tax policies are ensuring that an increasing number of people in our society will never develop a pocketbook interest in free enterprise. Even as they grow older, develop their careers, and earn more money, many will never pay a dollar in federal income tax because they’ll never catch up with an increasingly progressive tax system.
To put a modern twist on an old axiom, a man who is not a socialist at 20 has no heart. But a man who is still a socialist at 40 has no head-or pays no taxes. The current trend will increase the percentage of Americans who are permanent net takers from our society, who use more in public resources than they contribute, and for whom a free-enterprise system of entrepreneurship and limited government holds few obvious personal rewards. In a nutshell, the strategy is to make fewer and fewer people pay all the taxes and bear the brunt of paying for a growing government […] After President Obama’s budget stimulus and the proposed tax changes of 2011 […] this proportion will increast to almost 47 percent. […]
Simply stated, in the future there will be fewer and fewer people with “skin in the game.” Nonpayers will outnumber the payers. We will enventually reach a threshold beyond which most Americans have no economic incentive to defend free enterprise because it is so far from their interest to do so. The young sympathizers of socialism today may be the grown-up defenders of socialism tomorrow.
As Mark Schmitt wrote, “this theory that we’re headed toward a radical egalitarian state is being developed is the American Enterprise Institute, the oldest of the conservative think tanks and one that, much like Romney, has forsaken the traditional business-minded conservatism of, say, the first President Bush, for hard conservatism in which everything is a grand showdown of incompatible worldviews.” And The Battlewas the first statement that President Obama was at the vanguard of a new culture war on economic issues. Instead of wanting a government that consumes 25 percent of GDP and has a public welfare state versus one that consumes 19 percent and has a private welfare state, he is the economic equivalent of Robert Mapplethorpe. The right takes this book seriously; the author of the most prominent critical review of the book from the right was canned from his think tank job a month after it came out.
Who? The “30 percent” are the ones behind this expansion of people who don’t pay federal income taxes, and they’ll continue to expand it. Now before you think you wandered into a Wu-Tang song, we should clarify Brooks’ definition of the 30 percent and the 70 percent. The 30 percent are a group of people who“reject the free enterprise system culturally.” The free enterprise system stands in “stark contrast to European-style social democracy.” The 30 percent “twists equality of opportunity into equality of outcome.” Any idea that American liberalism stands in contrast to free market laissez-faire and Marxism isn’t explored; the 30 percent are entirely the bad guys, waiting to fundamentally change the country. Jonathan Chait wrote an excellent review of the book here,
Consequences? The big consequence is that this locks young people into socialism and the intellectual space of the 30 percent coalition, building their power. Having never paid taxes, they and others who benefit will think of government as free. So the 30 percent are then capable of continuing to seize more centralized control of the economy and defeat the cultural forces of free enterprise. The Battle is obsessed with how President Obama won in 2008; one conclusion is that the 30 percent doesn’t need to win people over intellectually, but just needs to keep enough people not paying taxes so that they’ll form a coherent base, particularly the young. But the 30 percent culture allows Romney to note that those who oppose his message “are dependent upon government [and] believe that they are victims.”