Four Histories Of The Right’s 47 Percent Theory
3. The Hammock. During the Q&A part of this 2011 Paul Ryan speech at Heritage (19m35s), Ryan noted:
I think it’s 49 percent of people who don’t pay taxes today, though there are other taxes. Here’s the danger I think we have. We’re coming close to a tipping point in America where we might have a net majority of takers versus makers in society and that could become very dangerous if it sets in as a permanent condition. Because what we’ll end up doing is we will convert our safety net system – which is necessary I believe, to help people who can’t help themselves, to help people who are down on their luck get back on their feet – we could turn that into a hammock that ends up lulling people into lives of dependency and complacency, which drains them of the incentives and the will to make the most of their lives.
Who? The do-gooders who created the social safety net. It’s too generous, too unconditional and not tied enough to work. In a practical way, it is the safety net itself that is creating this condition. Rather than the correct interpretation that people who are not paying taxes are receiving income support that requires work or various, purposely chosen tax credits, this indicts everything from health care to unemployment insurance (which, by definition, you needed to have worked to receive). This is a smart approach, because while going after the “30 percent” isn’t really a political platform, dramatically reducing the social safety net is.
Consequences? It’s not clear what “complacency” means in this condition, but dependency means that more and more income will come from the government. As this happens, their ability to take personal responsibility will fall apart. People will be beyond the ability to help themselves, hypnotized as they are by the siren’s call of the welfare state. This is why Romney can say “I’ll never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.”
4. Takers and Public Choice:
From Reason Magazine a while ago:
DeMint: Almost half of Americans are getting something from government, and the other half are paying for it. And we’re on a track where 60 percent are getting something from government and 40 percent are paying for it. You can’t sustain a democracy with that mix.
Reason: Because the 60 percent is going to be voting a bigger and bigger share of the 40 percent’s money?
DeMint: It’s hard to win elections when you’re talking about limited government if the constituents want more from government. You see that phenomenon on display in Greece. When the country is going down in flames, there are still people in the street, demonstrating for more government benefits. We’ve got to understand we’re in trouble, that we don’t have much time.
Or this from Steve Doocey on Fox and Friends: “Coming up! A controversial question. With 47% of Americans not paying taxes – 47% – should those who don’t pay be allowed to vote?”
Who? The 47 percent themselves. As predicted by Public Choice theory, those at the bottom half of the income scale vote into office people willing to take from the top half of the income scale. Since the average is above the median in income, there’s always redistribution from the average to the median to be done. Here the intellectuals of the 30 percent, or the welfare state, or GOP strategy are all secondary; the ravages of democracy are the culprit.
Consequences? The system eventually collapses into itself, as those at the margin work less and also join in demanding more. DeMint alludes to Greece, where the collapse of the government seems almost to be part of the plan to then take over the state, which is consistent with the right’s conspiracy theory of the Cloward-Piven strategy. But this focus on stop-gating the median voter allows for Romney to think “What I have to do is convince the 5 to 10 percent in the center that are independents.”
Presumably there are more. What else is missing?
Cross-posted from Rortybomb
Mike Konczal is a fellow with the Roosevelt Institute