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RAND Poll Shows Democrats Have The Advantage In Presidential Election

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RAND Poll Shows Democrats Have The Advantage In Presidential Election

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Despite Donald Trump’s frightening rise, Democrats have a better chance at winning the upcoming presidential election, according to a survey by RAND Corporation, a private, nonpartisan think tank.

The poll, which was performed once in December 2015 and again in March, revealed that the primary cycle has led to increased support for Democrats, most likely as a result of Donald Trump’s exclusionary rhetoric. In December, the parties were almost evenly matched, with 46.7 percent of respondents reporting they would vote for a Democrat and 43.1 percent reporting they would vote for a Republican. But following the second round of surveys, the numbers had changed: 53 percent for Democrats, 38 percent for Republicans.

On the Democratic side, the polls revealed what has already been obvious for months: an upswell of support for Vermont senator Bernie Sanders. He rose by 11 points as the preferred candidate among respondents while Clinton dropped by six points.

Among Republicans, Ohio governor John Kasich had the largest increase in support, though that hasn’t translated into primary victories. Between December and March, he went up 20 points among respondents, commanding a total of 23 percent of the vote — still far behind Trump’s 42 percent support among respondents.

These results, though months ahead of the general election, show a promising trend for Democrats: Donald Trump, perhaps, is such a polarizing figure that he’s made his own party look worse as a result.

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2 Comments

  1. Dominick Vila May 3, 2016

    I believe we have a good chance to win the White House, and get control of the Senate in November, but I don’t think it is going to be the walk in the park that so many of us think.
    The dissatisfaction, and overt anger, that is evident in the Republican race is likely to be felt by many Democrats as well. I believe the anger, and the support that Donald Trump is getting, has more to do with the continuing erosion of manufacturing – and service sector – jobs in the USA, and the fact that millions of Americans who once upon a time were able to support their families and send their kids to college working in an assembly line. Those same people – who are not all Republicans – are now stocking shelves at WalMart for minimum wage, getting substandard benefits, and making ends meet. Those disaffected Americans are not going to vote for someone they perceive to be an “establishment” politician, regardless of how qualified, experienced, or supportive that person may be. Trump appeals to them because he is capitalizing on an issue that has been ignored by both parties, and blue collar Americans, regardless of party affiliation, are determined to send them a message they will never forget.
    Yes, most of what Trump says is hogwash, and irreversible without a major shift in ideological paradigm. Yes, the only ones that can only change our economic woes, and our personal struggles, is us. But for those who have lost everything, including hope, a little light at the end of the tunnel is much better than a status quo that only guarantees perpetual misery.

    Reply
  2. I of John May 4, 2016

    The data is good news but no one should relax. Trump is chaos and predicting his effect is difficult.

    Reply

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